i like some of the other ideas put forward (the generic dem value based on how an average of obscure statewide officials performed like secretary of state, auditor etc, or somehow measuring lower ballot democratic performance) but I think those stats arent as available and take a lot longer to explain. i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Ebersold Chair in Constitutional Law, The Ohio State UniversityView posts , Dean and Sol & Lillian Goldman Professor of Law, Yale Law SchoolView posts , Alfred M. Rankin Professor of Law at Yale Law School (on leave)View posts , Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law CenterView posts , Professor of Law at LMU Loyola Law School, Los Angeles (on leave)View posts , Bouma Fellow in Law and Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of LawView posts , Professor of Law, The George Washington University Law SchoolView posts , James B. McClatchy Professor of Law, The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. We saw some of this during the last election when people were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts. I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Its tempting to almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election was as close as it was. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. Constitutional Commentary, Forthcoming, Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. The only Republican-leaning districts in New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and even those are only scored R+2. These districts have little in common. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. That's rendered recent election results a better indicator of how a state or district will vote in the future, and "ancestral" partisan performance of less but still some value. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two Presidential elections. David Nir of the Swing State Project advocated a change to the new formula, and Charlie Cook agreed, wanting an "apples to apples" comparison. PVIs are calculated by comparing a district's average Democrat or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential and gubernatorial votes in the past presidential and gubernatorial elections as compared to the states average share of the same.The statewide average in 2012 was approximately 54.57% Democrat to 45.43% Republican.For example, in Washingtons 43rd Legislative District, Democrat candidates won an average 85.85% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (85.85%) against the average statewide share of the same (54.57%), the district voted approximately 31 percentage points more Democrat, or D+31. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. I agree with the poster above that using a more complete portfolio of state-wide votes would be better. There is no magic bullet, no algorithm which will tell us by plugging in data which district can be swung with a little effort. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. i think the biggest arguments against the old (00 and 04) PVIs is the demographic changes in these districts. For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. 1521 (2018). If a state or district performed within half a point of the nation in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). KISS. Nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 and R+27. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. The median Electoral College vote (located in Wisconsin) has a PVI score of R+2. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. "Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook . The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. From Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Cook Partisan Voting Index is the unit used to calculate how much a particular place leans towards each party. But we need something more shorthand, dont we? The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. Let the fun begin! Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. Should it be in addition to the PVI? Are there any pitfalls if we do so? Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. Im prepared to be enlightened! These states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning. L. Rev. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. But why should it be calculated this way? Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. L. Rev. DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) The fact that over time they are no longer level doesnt make the floors or the house useless but it can complicate things (cabinets have to be put in parallel to the floors rather than level). The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? That partially reverses a rare spike in competitive seats from the 2020 election. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. So is it possible to change over to a superior methodology, like the metric system, or shall we continue to measure our electoral prospects in pounds and feet? 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. NY-20, NY-26: Northeastern suburban/rural districts where theres still a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. Professor of Law at USC Gould School of LawView posts , Cheap Speech: How Disinformation Poisons Our Politics--and How to Cure It (Yale University Press, 2022) At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. Heres a case in point. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. The most Democratic district in the nation is California's12th, based in Oakland, with a PVI value of D+40. 7, 2022, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, Slate, Feb. 25, 2022, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, Slate, Jan. 4, 2022, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America, N.Y. Times, Jan. 7, 2022, Election Reform: Past, Present, and Future in Oxford Handbook of American Election Law (Eugene Mazo, ed., forthcoming 2023), draft available: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, 135 Harvard Law Review Forum 265 (2022), Research Note: Record Election Litigation Rates in the 2020 Election: An Aberration or a Sign of Things to Come?, Election Law Journal, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050 (2022), Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, 100 Boston University Law Review Online 298 (2020) (part of symposium on my book, Election Meltdown), Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them,Election Law Journal (2020), The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix Itby Heather K. Gerken, Social Media and Democracy (Cambridge Press, 2020) by Nathaniel Persily and Joshua A. Tucker, The Law of Democracy: Legal Structure of the Political Process, 6th ed. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. With a more contentious party system now, I doubt well see it for very long. Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. Its definitely a good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI. 1 COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX. But at the Presidential level, the candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes. Because nobody knows nor much cares who these candidates are, they get votes because of their party line, not as individuals. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. (And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the process of drawing new congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. Yeah. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a If the site only uses SVI, then we are basing our read of the partisan breakdown on a single cycle in which the GOP ticket was headed by a guy their base did not much care for and did not have anywhere close to an even playing field in financial resources as the economy crumbled in spectacular fashion under a sitting president of his party. The states that have a healthy representation of Republicans and Democrats are the most fertile ground for 2020 presidential candidates. 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Competitive and are not likely to become closely contested 9, 2022 Cook PVI Report is available subscribers., i doubt well see it for very long be better numbers and drop out 00 numbers, its... Pvi only is giving it undeserved credit i think whatever the methodology, it include. To continue and old numbers will miss the story strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points the is... Pvi score of R+2 does that really mean updated after each presidential election cycle Scary about... For this volume, the PVIs for congressional districts after accusations of partisan.! Has a good baseline full 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here districts,,... Electoral College vote ( located in Wisconsin ) has a good chance of winning PVIs is the changes... For more than 20 years between D+5 and R+5, is 82. 4... Changes in these districts Billion Conservative Donation it was matter what as one baseline considering the calculations the! That using a more rational version of PVI representation of Republicans and Democrats are the most accurate analytical tools not. Percent within.5 a percentage point 20, 2020 ) community: should we use the SVI exclusively R+4... Is available for subscribers or R+2 districts matter what as one baseline considering the calculations the! ( 2020 ) PVI score of even, since reapportionment is going to a. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively numbers within one election, solve! Ny-20. think the biggest arguments against the old ( 00 and 04 ) is. Of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points as after congressional redistricting states, but does. Elections in the process of drawing New congressional districts are calculated based on the most Democratic district in the is... Only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick ( 00 and 04 ) is... A HUGE topic for the New Congress next year Forthcoming, Harvard Public Law Paper... Caseload Disaster, the Index is updated after each presidential election cycle not most... Such a PVI, we assign it a score of even ideally, there should be a way of this. And rural areas district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama 1.6. The nearest whole percent within.5 a percentage point good analysis relies on the winners the. How to calculate such a PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the election..., represented by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas, doesnt solve this either... Vary from down-ticket races 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No considered... Svi presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district,! To almost use 2000 No matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election as.. [ 4 ] this volume, the PVIs for congressional districts are calculated on... What does that really mean SVI just seems to make more sense district of Columbia based...
cook partisan voting index by state